Wednesday, March 05, 2008

So Who's Going To Be President?

I was surprised to see that Hillary Clinton was able to win both the Texas primary and the Ohio primary. I really thought that with Barak Obama's momentum that he would carry at least one of those states. Guess that shows how much I know...

So, who's going to win? I'll give you my predictions but bear in mind that my record on predictions isn't that good. After all, I predicted that:

1) John McCain's candidacy was doomed before the primaries even started (granted a lot of people made that mistake).

2) That Barak Obama would be more of a fringe candidate and not a serious challenger (I actually thought John Edwards had a pretty good chance).

3) That Mitt Romney would do much better than he did (after all, he's intelligent, understands economics, has a history of turning around businesses, etc. - what's not to like?).

So, based on those and my many other mis-predictions, you can take these thoughts with a grain of salt. So here's what I think:

1) Barak Obama will eventually win the nomination. He still has a lot of momentum and is a very appealing candidate to liberals as well as moderates. I also think that too many people hate Hillary Clinton for her to be a viable candidate. Obama has the advantage of having designated himself as the "candidate of hope" which resonates with a lot of people. Unless he makes a colossal mistake, I think he will get the nomination.

2) John McCain will not win the presidency if he runs against Obama. I think McCain's best chance is if he runs against Clinton. There is enough conservative hatred of Clinton to really mobilize the base Republicans and her reputation as a Washington insider is not going to help her with the independents that view McCain as a maverick (in a good way). If he runs against Obama, a lot of the conservatives that don't like him may stay home. After all, Obama hasn't done anything to make the conservatives hate him (not yet anyway). Also, the independents that are going to be key for winning in November really like Obama as well. That just makes things doubly hard for McCain.

So that's how I see things right now. I do, however, reserve the right to change my opinion as new facts, etc. emerge.

Who do you think will win?

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